California Derby favorite shipping in from South
Horseracing Betting Lines
01/13/2012 - Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Mike Machowsky is sending his three- year-old Hodge up from Santa Anita for Saturday's $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The 1 1/16-mile race is a prep event for the track's $200,000 El Camino Real Derby on February 18.
Hodge has been made the 9-5 favorite in the seven horse field. The gray colt will be ridden by Russell Baze from post two. Baze, a member of Racing's Hall of Fame, has won the Derby five times, a record he shares with another Hall of Fame rider, Johnny Longden.
Hodge is coming off a third-place finish in the Hollywood Prevue as a 21-1 longshot, beaten less than two-lengths. With one win in three starts the colt has earned $39,350.
Local runner Russian Greek is the 5-2 second pick in the program. Winner of the track's Gold Rush Stakes, Russian Greek, trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, will start from post six with Aaron Gryder in the saddle.
Owned by Olympia Star Inc., Russian Greek opened his career with a win at San Rosa last July. In November the colt was fifth in the Golden Nugget at Golden Gate before rallying from last to win the Gold Rush by a neck over Marshal Marini. He has banked $61,700.
Also shipping in from down south is 4-1 third choice Senor Rain. Trained by Peter Miller, the chestnut gelding will start from the rail post with Kevin Krigger riding.
Senor Rain, owned by Gary and Cecil Barber, had to be pulled up during the running of the Generous Stakes at Hollywood Park on November 27. On November 12 the colt set the pace in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood before finishing third on the synthetic main track. Senor Rain has banked $73,416 with two wins in seven starts.
Here is the field for the California Derby in post position order: Senor Rain, Kevin Krigger, 4-1; Hodge, Russell Baze, 9-5; Unveiled Heat, Abel Cedillo, 12-1; Cahill Chrome, Juan Hernandez, 10-1; Blacky the Bull, Kerwin John, 6-1; Russian Greek, Aaron Gryder, 5-2 and Reconstruction, Frank Alvarado, 8-1.
Post-time on Saturday is scheduled for 7:22 p.m. (et).
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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